S&P500 Valuation Estimator
This multivariate input tool enables you to model the expected value of the S&P500 after a period of years (range = 1-to-10 years). using a proprietary model of the relationship between PE and the risk-free interest rate. This tool also enables ypu to estimate the net present value (NPV) of an investment in the S&P500, and the NPV of an investment in the so-called risk-free asset represented by the 10-year T-Bond.
Enter percentage values and interest rates in decimal format (e.g., enter 3.57% as 0.0357).
Current historical rates for EPS and Dividend Growth, and the historical mean T-Bond rate are pre-populated for your convenience; these fields may (and usually should) be overwritten with your own assumptions and data for your modeling and sensitivity analysis purposes.
| Expected S&P500 Value Metric | Expected Value |
|---|---|
| Expected Price: | ?? |
| Optimistic Price: | ?? |
| Pessimistic Price: | ?? |
| Expected P/E Ratio: | ?? |
| Expected EPS: | ?? |
| Gross Total Return: | ?? |
| Simple Annual Return: | ?? |
| CAGR: | ?? |
| Dividend Stream: | ?? |
| PV of Dividend Stream: | ?? |
| Net Liquidating Dividend: | ?? |
| Gross Cash Flows: | ?? |
| Expected NPV of Investment: | ?? |
| Optimistic NPV: | ?? |
| Pessimistic NPV: | ?? |
| Expected T-Bond Value Metric | Expected Value |
| Gross Bond Cash Flows: | ?? |
| Gross Bond Total Return: | ?? |
| Bond Simple Annual Return: | ?? |
| Bond CAGR: | ?? |
| T-Bond Gross Interest Payments: | ?? |
| PV of T-Bond Interest: | ?? |
| Price of T-Bond at End of Period: | ?? |
| PV of T-Bond at End of Period: | ?? |
| Expected T-Bond NPV: | ?? |